Giddy Up Pickup

I had another opportunity to join the “Future Collectible” panel at Barrett-Jackson’s Scottsdale sale this year (watch here), and walking the rows upon rows of collector cars always has a profound effect on my thoughts. With over $200 million in total sales during the week, it’s hard not to be blown away while watching that amount of money change hands.

I’ve been visiting the sale for well over a decade, and what surprises me the most about the year-over-year changes is not necessarily the rising dollar amounts or the over-the-top displays, but rather the ways in which the vehicles themselves evolve with time.

When the muscle car scene exploded in the mid 2000’s there was an initial air of foolhardiness sprinkled in with the exploding values. Hemi cars, LS6 Chevelles, and Boss Mustangs seemed to grow more valuable by the minute, with some cars selling multiple times at the same events for ever more money. Until they didn’t.

Eventually, the enthusiasm and willful disregard for financial standards that had inflated the economy brought it all crashing down. Muscle car values plummeted, then stabilized, and then buyers matured as a result. Buyers grew more discerning and, to a large degree, reverted back to more steadfast investing rules, such as allowing provenance, rarity, and originality to drive value.

Now, I can’t help but wonder if we’re primed to witness a similar trajectory with trucks and SUVs.

I couldn’t find a year prior to 2015 where more than two Blazers or more than ten Broncos were available for sale in Scottsdale, nor did any of those sales come anywhere near the $100k mark. By 2019, there were almost twenty Broncos for sale, and three went for more than $100k. There were only ten Blazers that year, and only one of those crested the $100k mark. This year, however, was a different story.

There were sixty-three Broncos up for grabs this year at Scottsdale, and almost half of them (27) went for more than $100 thousand dollars. The Blazer values were even more eye-popping. Of the forty available on hand, more than half (23) sold for over $100k. Of those, ten sold for more than $200k, and the most expensive one brought a staggering $440,000.

Want to know what $440,000 looks like? (Photo courtesy of Barrett-Jackson)

Once you get past the idea of a $100k Blazer, there are several points worth considering when trying to make sense of it all. First, the demographics are shifting. Yes, muscle cars are still going strong, but trucks and SUVs from the 70s, 80s, and 90s are having their moment. That fact is undeniable.

When the most desirable vehicles of those decades are lined up side by side, it’s easy to understand why trucks are on the summit. Camaros, Mustangs, Corvettes and the like were all suffering the malaise of their times, and trucks and SUVs were just about the most fun you could have in V8-powered, rear-wheel drive machines back then. Patrick Swayze drove a square-body Chevy when escaping the Russians in Red Dawn, as did Lee Majors as The Fall Guy, and Michael Douglas and Kathleen Turner escaped the cartel in a topless Bronco dubbed the “Little Mule” in my favorite scene in Romancing the Stone.

What’s interesting to me about the sudden upturn in the truck market isn’t that it’s happening, but rather how it’s happening. In many ways, truck values seem, at least at the moment, to abide by a completely different set of rules than we typically apply to valuation. Where resto-modded muscle cars almost universally lag behind original examples, the truck market works in almost complete contrast. Lifts, aftermarket wheels, and oversized tires typically improve value rather than impede it, and no one seems particularly concerned with documentation or original drivetrains, either.

Perhaps the one example I can point to at this year’s auction that might suggest otherwise was the 1989 Chevrolet K5 Blazer with only 21 miles on the odometer that sold for a bewildering (checks notes) $154,000. A similarly equipped 1986 K5 with 45k miles on the clock sold for under $16k in Scottsdale in 2018, just six years ago, so I can’t help but wonder how much higher this wave can rise before it crests.

With only 21 miles on the clock, this K5 sold this year for $154,000. (Photo courtesy of Barrett-Jackson)

In 2018, a similarly-equipped K5 with about 45k miles sold for just under $16k. (Photo courtesy of Barrett-Jackson)

Do I expect classic truck and SUV values to crater anytime soon? I do not. I do, however, believe an ebb is growing closer by the day. My guess is that, as with muscle cars, we’ll see the rabid buying frenzy slow a bit as buyers begin to see more and more nicely painted and resto-modded Blazers and Broncos hit the market, and the discerning buyers will turn their attention to limited editions, low-mileage, and well preserved examples. I just wish I had stashed a few away for safe keeping.